This could be the fastest game over the past 20 years. Denver isn't going to attempt over 10 passes and the jets won't be that far behind. Vegas has a prop bet on Tebow's Over/under completions at 11. Since there could very well be 100 combined rushing attempts in this game, I'm taking the under on that and I don't bet against TEEEEEEEEBOOOOOOOOW!!!!!!! mostly for my fear of lightning.
Green Bay -13 vs. Tampa Bay
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| Discount Double Check |
I had a tough time picking this game. Tampa Bay traditionally plays well in Lambeau, winning their last 2 trips there. But that was 2009 and 2008 when the Pack wasn't as good. +800 right now in Vegas for the Packers to run the table, but I'm not touching that. Throw down $100 on that and I would be standing in my living room by myself for the next 7 Sundays yelling at the TV until I finally just passed out from the rage.
Tampa has lost 4 of their last 5, all to decent teams, and I see them keeping "Discount Double Check" to around 33 points. I just don't see Tampa scoring more than 20.
While we are talking about the Pack, I would like to congratulate my buddy who won his own Eliminator league this week with the Packers win. This is the same buddy who gave everyone a freebie after week 7 when each team lost, including his own. Nothing like bending the rules to make yourself an extra $200. Congrats!
Detroit -7 vs. Back Door Cam
Has any player been more hyped without winning games than Cam Newton? Fantasy stud. Athletic as hell. But 2-7 with losses to Arizona, Minnesota, and crushed by Tennessee last week. At least TEEEEEEEEBOOOOOOOOOW wins games. Back Door Cam is more of the taker than the giver. The Lions have to be pissed after being embarassed for the past couple of weeks. They haven't been the same team since Jim Schwartz flipped out and went all puffed up chest, small barking dog on Jim Harbaugh. But they have to get back on track sometime right?
Cleveland +1.5 vs. Jacksonville
Both these teams suck. And not just a little bit. I mean like fat ugly girl on prom night suck. These two teams have broke 20 points 1 time each this year. How embarrassing is that? Not to mention, how pissed is David Garrard right now? He has to be watching the Jags play with a bottle of Jack and a bucket that catches little pieces of his dignity every time Blaine Gabbert throws a pick and runs off the field looking like "Sunshine" from Remember the Titans. Browns cover, but only because they are at home.
Oakland -1 at Minnesota
What if I told you Oakland is 3-1 on the road this year?
What if I told you Oakland is 4-0 against the spread on the road this year?
What if I told you that Minnesota sucks? That they're 1-4 at home this year?
I'll tell you exactly what is going to happen in this game: I started Michael Bush in my touchdowns only fantasy league this week. So he is going to fumble twice, then get hurt so he ends up with negative points. Denarius Moore will score 2 more TDs since I cut him. And Oakland will find someway to win by 1/2 a point so I lose this game to a 2 year old who will undoubtedly pick the Vikings. But I'm still going with the Raiders.
Buffalo +2 at Miami
Miami seems to be getting better and Buffalo seems to be getting worse. I picked Buffalo last week and they proceeded to bend over and get "Back Door Cam'd". But nobody circles the wagons. . . (Damn you Berman). I'm still on the Buffalo bandwagon, but I'm close to the only one left. They rush for 135 per game, so they can control the clock (which is good cause their defense is horrible). They have offensive weapons and can put up points. In the end I think this is a close game, so I'll take the 2 point buffer.
Washington +7.5 vs. Dallas
Bengals +9 at Baltimore
Arizona +10 at San Francisco
I know what you're thinking, and you don't need to call me names. At this point, the whole NFC east is a crap shoot and in reality the Cowboys only have 2 more wins than the Redskins (one being against the Seahawks on the road, who suck). In the past 10 years the Cowboys have only beaten the Redskins by more than 7 three times.
I am definitely on the Bengal bandwagon. There's a lot of names out there for Andy Dalton right now: Red Rocket, Red Rifle, Shawshank (Andy & Red), and my personal favorite The Pale Rider. Ok, so I had the Bengals last week and they didn't cover. But they did push, against a good Steelers team. I know Baltimore is coming off an embarrassing loss to Seatlle (it sounds even more ridiculous when you say it). But last time they came off their embarrassing loss to Jacksonville they only beat the Cardinals by 3. The Pale Rider carries them through.
Arizona is playing better (beat the Eagles, beat the Rams, lost by 3 to the Ravens). I'm not saying they are going to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do. Do we really think the 49ers are going to go 15-1? Frank Gore is banged up, which might hurt them controlling the clock. They don't have anyone who can cover Fitzgerald. And I think John Skelton is a better passer than Alex Smith, but then again my unborn daughter is a better passer than Alex Smith. Number 1 overall. Good call by not taking Aaron Rodgers, that wouldn't have worked out very well.
St. Louis -3 vs. Seattle
I don't like the Seahawks. I don't know why. I grew up in a suburb of Seattle. From the ages of 13 to 18 I was friends with Seahawks quarterbacks coaches kid, so I had free tickets to the games anytime I wanted. I also got to go into the coaches suites and the coaches post game after party. I went to a Seahawks christmas party once with all the players, coaches, and their families. I used to go down onto the field after the games to run around and play catch with my buddy. Like I said, I don't know why I don't like them. But I do know that they are horrible on the road, and St. Louis is playing better.
Atlanta -6.5 vs. Tennessee
Tough game to pick. Tennessee coming a big win over Carolina and Atlanta coming off the Mike Smith overtime debacle. The Falcons are now 2 games back in the NFC south and need this win to keep pace with the Saints. However, the Titans are 2 games back of the Texans who recently lost Matt Schaub for the year. So they probably have some hope of winning the division now that Matt Leinhart is taking over. What the hell happened to that guy? How come nobody talks about him as one of the biggest flops ever? Come on, he's one interview flip out from being the next Ryan Leaf. Somebody has to take that spot over. It's a black eye on an otherwise spotless Coug image.
Chicago -4 vs. San Diego
Why is this line not higher? The Bears are at home, in the cold, against a bad warm weather team. The Chargers are 4-5 by the way. Who have they beat? Minnesota, Kansas City, Miaimi, and Denver B.T. (That's Before Tebow). Honestly I think this should be a double digit line. Which means that someone in Vegas knows something I don't. This is about the time of year when San Diego turns it on and wins 6 in a row. I'm sure the Chargers will win by 14 and the kid will pick them. But I'm sticking with the Bears.
New York Giants -3.5 vs. Philadelphia
So let me get this straight: In week 3 the Giants go to Philly and beat the Eagles by 13. Now the Eagles, without Vick, are going to New York and the line is only 3.5? What the hell is going on here? Are there some obvious points that I don't see? Am I to believe the Vince Young or Mike Kafka is going to lead the Eagles to victory with no Jeremy Maclin and a Desean Jackson that doesn't want to play?
Quick side note. When did it become ok to put letters on the front of a regular name? Desean. D'Anthony. DaBrickishaw. That last one is my favorite name of all time. I would name one of my own kids that, boy or girl, if my wife wouldn't kill me in my sleep.
The Giants look like a no brainer here. Which is why the Eagles will cover.
New England -14.5 vs. Kansas City
I'm not even going to over think this. I'm taking Belichick. Shut your mouth, I don't care how many points it is. Make it 20, I'm still taking it.
But seriously 14.5 points? This is still the NFL right? This is like an Oklahoma vs. Ball State line.
Good luck to you and your picks this week. If you would like to join in with my Battle to de-throne the 2 year old genius, just email me your picks by Friday of each week and I will post them on the blog.
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