Recap and Championship picks Try 2

Just a quick reminder to all of you to as where we were before last weekend:

After Wildcard Playoffs
Me 58-61         47%
Kid 60-59        50.2%
Brent 47-44      *56.4%
Huhns 43-34     *58.1%

It seems the Huhn's are going to run away with this thing, but as commissioner I am putting an asterix (*) next to their record since they did not participate through the whole year, same goes with Brent. But lets not allow this punctuation mark take away from their accomplishments this year. Just because one makes their picks with in seconds and the other would be doing way better if their Dad wasn't holding them back, is no reason to hold a grudge. Now whether either of them is invited back to play next year, that's up for grabs.

Speaking of next year, I thought we could start a new league. Anyone with a kid under the age of 7 can join, and Brent because he is grandfathered in. $20 entry fee at the begginning of the year. Your kid picks every game, I will mail you a set of official NFL team logos to use, from week 1 to the Super Bowl, winner takes all. I'm sure there are some kind of rules/regulations/CPS laws against this, but I say let's do it.

After my embarassing week for the Wildcard playoffs I had a much better week for the Divisionals.

Brent and I both went 2-0 on Saturday taking the 49ers, in the best playoff game I can remember, and the Pats, in their demolishing of the chosen one. This was a good day. As much as I hate Jim Harbaugh, I found myself standing in my upstairs living room, hands in the air, 3 beers deep, in disbelief as Vernon Davis caught the TD pass to win the game. More surprising than the fact that New Orleans left the 49ers only receiver open again to win, was the fact that I did not scream since my daughter was sleeping in the next room. I even won my 3 team teaser on this day, covering half of my losses from the bath I took the previous weekend, thank you Steelers. Even better was the fact that the Menace took the Broncos, rookie. Giving me a one game jump. Little did I know that Sunday would kick me square in the balls.

The morning game not only sucked to watch, but was a push. That makes it a loser on all accounts. The only good part about this game was that I covered the first 2 legs of a 4 team teaser, a winner making me $80. The other 2 legs were the over in the Packers-Giants game and . . . . . . The Packers at -1.

For those of you who are not betting people, let me explain. First of all, you really should start betting, it makes the game more exciting and is in no way morally comprimising. Second, -1 means that all the Packers, the best team in the NFL this year, had to do is win by more than 1 point. That's right 1 point, for the team who averaged 35 points per game this year.

Anyone who watched the game knows that this did not happen. So let's recap all the wonderful things that this game brought me. I lost my 4 team teaser after getting the first 3 legs correct. Eli stuck it to me again, bastard. And worst of all, the damn kid picked the f-ing Giants and made up the one game I was ahead to tie me this week. I would like to thank all the Packers who dropped passes. The packer defense who forgot to cover people on 3rd and long plays and gave up a hail marry to end the first half. Aaron Rodgers for running around like a chicken with it's head cut off for most of the game. And Eli Manning. You bad body language, Eeyore faced, could win 7 super bowls and would never be as good as your brother piece of crap.

So here we stand after the Divisional round:
Me 2-1-1
Kid 2-1-1
Brent 3-0-1
Huhns 1-2-1


After Divisional Playoffs
Me 60-62-2         49.2%
Kid 62-60-2        50.8%
Brent 50-44-2      53.2%
Huhns 44-36-2     55%

Championship Picks

New England -6.5 vs. Baltimore

Look, at this point in the year do I really have to explain why I am picking the Pats?
There is a great article on Grantland about Belichick that explains some of his greatness. Some of you church going folk may not enjoy the title. I understand the Baltimore is the safer pick here. Better running game. Better defense. Both things needed to keep a good offense, like the Patriots, off the field. But I personally am a big fan of holding grudges. And if you remember correctly the last time the Ravens came to New England for a playoff game, they killed the Patriots.

Tell me how the Ravens are going to stop the Pats offense? Take away the 2 tight ends. Wes Welker runs wild and didn't Deon Branch score a touch down last game? Sit in zone and cover all the receivers. Brady picks you apart. Rush the quarter back and make him uncomfortable. Brady throws more quick passes and would be 3 step drops if he weren't in the shot gun than anyone else in the league. You cannot rush a QB who doesn't hold the ball. This isn't like the Giants and Aaron Rodgers last week. The Packers throw a lot of deep routes with 5-7 step drops that take time. The Pats don't do that.

Come on, are you really going to tell me that Belichick doesn't seem like a holds grudges guy?

San Francisco -2 vs. New York Giants
I don't care if Eli sticks it to me every week from here on out, I am not picking the Giants. I'm riding the Brent Evans, Jim Harbaugh, enthusiasm, 49er train to hell.

Great new falic reference term came out in Bill Simmons mail bag this week, the "Harb-on". I thought this was the perfect nickname for the man himself, but at the very least a great term.

Side note, in that same article a guy talks about a rule for his fantasy league. Loser has to wear a rainbow bananna hammock to the beach and get a picture taken with some strangers.

Sorry, off track.

This is an old timey, head bangin, defense heavy playoff game. The 49ers have the better defense. I believe in defense. I believe in home field advantage. I believe that Harb-on is a better coach than Coughlin (even though I hate Harbaugh). I believe in West coast over East Coast. Tupac, Snoop, and Dre all day baby. I believe in Brents uncanny ability to be good/lucky at all things betting and involving money. Besides how boring would Super Bowl media day be with Belichick and Coughlin? Lets get some random Harb-on quotes.

Good luck to all of you with your picks for this week.

Brents divisional picks

49ers +3 under 47 Patriots -13.5 over 50 Ravens -7 under 35.5 Giants +9 under 52.5

Huhns divisional picks

We are moved in enough to be functional but have zero TV and shotty internet at best. The toilet is plugged and the only store dedicated to hardware closes at 6 everyday. It's like we moved back in time. Everything is being done on a phone. Our picks will be a little abbreviated but done the less an honest effort. New Orleans -3 Denver +13.5 Ravens -7 NY Giants +9

F the Stats

For those of you that don't know I am a high school math teacher. This week we have been reviewing for finals. I start off class by giving them some important formulas and talking through some concepts, then I give them a practice test for whatever chapter we are reviewing that day. Now here's the kicker, I don't grade these practice tests. I don't even have them turn them in. We go over the correct answers at the end of the period, but if they actually they do it or not is their choice. Most of the students will actually do it, but some of them won't do a thing. 

Yesterday I am walking through the class and ask one of the students how come they aren't working on the review. Their response was, "I always fail the quizzes anyway, what's the point of doing the review?" 

So I said, "Let me get this straight. You never do anything in here. You don't take notes, you don't do the practice problems, you don't study, but you are confused about why you continue to fail quizzes? So if you were to punch yourself in the face, would you wonder why it hurts? Or would you just keep punching yourself in the face cause you're a moron?"

I've been told that tact isn't my strong suit.

This little incident got me to thinking. I do over an hour of research every week for my picks and where has it got me? I'm losing to a 2 year old, I'm picking 10% worse than a 3 year old, and have a lower percentage than Brent, who sends his picks back within minutes of me sending him the lines. All my research has put me in last place. Maybe I should start punching myself in the face repeatedly. 

This week I'm going a different direction. I am going to take my own advice and make an adjustment. This week I am going to go against popular opinion, buck the trends, think outside of the box, go with my gut. And if it all goes bad, we don't have school on Monday so I can get wheel barrow drunk and forget about it all. 

San Francisco +3 vs. New Orleans

This is not the look for a guy who tries to be Billy Bad Ass

Everyone thinks New Orleans is the hot team and that they are going to score 40+ points in every game. Every person outside of the Bay area thinks the Saints are going to win this game. Why wouldn't they? Alex Smith, rookie head coach and the first time in the playoffs for a lot of the 49er players sounds like a recipe for a loss. And the line only being 3 points make this very easy for the Saints to cover with how fast they can score touchdowns. All that being said, I'm going the other way. Now counting on Jim Harbaugh is kind of like using one of my testicles as collateral for a bet, but I'm doing it anyway. He's had two weeks to put on his white polo shirt, black standard sweatshirt, and the jock you know he coaches in. He should be ready to go. 

New England -13.5 vs. Denver

Teeeeeeeeeeeeboooooooooooooow! Cost me $40 and caused my wife to become ill to the point where she shivered violently on the couch for an hour. As far as I'm concerned he can kiss my ass next time he is Tebowing. Taking my money is one thing, but messing with my family, that's completely different. Not only am I off the bandwagon, but I'm hiding behind a tree waiting to ambush the damn thing when it comes around the corner. 

America has Tebow mania, as they probably should. But guess what America? My boy Belichick has a P.h.d. in the black arts. He is gonna sit 2 safeties over the top and make Tebow complete short passes all day to beat him. This line could be 20 and I would still take the Patriots. You're telling me that Belichick can't out coach John Fox? No chance. He eats other teams stars for breakfast. He has taken down Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson when they were MVPs, he can take down Tebow. 

Houston +7 at Baltimore

The popular opinion here is that Baltimore rolls. TJ Yates won't be able to pass on the Baltimore defense, the Ravens will be pumped up at home, and Ray Rice will run all over the Texans D. Seems to me like these two teams are pretty similar. Both play good defense, both run the ball well, and both have average QB's. TJ Yates looked pretty good last week against a good Bengal defense, so I think he will be adequate against an aging Ravens D. Let's get serious here: Ray Lewis was scary 10 years ago when he stabbed a guy on Saturday night and won the super bowl MVP on sunday, but now he is just older, slower, and louder. Sure the Ravens will be pumped up, but adrenaline only lasts for so long and old legs don't have much juice in them anymore. 

Look, I love defense more than the next guy. I know the Ravens had the #3 defense in the NFL, but do you know who had the #2 defense in the NFL? That's right, the Texans. Who has younger players on their defense? The Texans. Who hates old people? This guy.

Green Bay -9 vs. NY Giants

For weeks all the experts at the Mothership (little Dan Patrick reference for you, if you don't get it, google it) have been saying that the Giants are the team to beat the Packers. They rush the passer well, they run the ball well, and they have a good passing game. Combine that with a big spread (-9) and most of the betting has gone the Giants way.

Here's a nice little stat that was tweeted to me this week by Spreadapedia:

I Love this guy.        Rodgers!!!!

Since 1978 home playoff teams with a turnover differential of +2 are 35-6 against the spread and 38-3 straight up. 

There are two home playoff teams with that high of turnover differential this week, the 49ers and the Packers. Hard to believe that the Packers had a +24 turnover diff this year with how bad their defense was, but they are very opportunistic and discount double check doesn't throw many picks.

 I thought that the Packers offense would struggle with Rodgers not playing against the Lions, but then Matt Flynn sets Green Bay records for yards thrown and TDs thrown. Turns out that offense is just a passing machine. The Lions defense is horrible, I get it, but the Giant DBs aren't anything special either. If Rodgers gets some time they should score 40 easy. Throw that in with a couple of picks on the hopes and prayers that Eli tosses up sometimes, and the Packers roll. 

Eli can't continue to screw me, right?

Good luck to all of you with your picks this week. 

Week 17 and Wild Card Recap

Last Friday was a pretty good day. My parents came into town (which at least half of my marriage enjoys), my wife's basketball team won a good game against a good team, my kid had been pretty good lately, and I had just ate some PF Changs and drank some good liquor with my father. Late Friday night I was drinking some Crown and making my picks for the wild card weekend. The last game for me to pick was the Pittsburgh vs. Denver game, in which I picked the Steelers. I went on to say that I was off the Tebow bandwagon and was done drinking the kool-aid. Let me tell you what has happend since then:

Saturday morning: Houston crushes Cincinnati, ruining my 3 team teaser for that whole day. All Cincinnati had to do was lose by less than 11, is that so much to ask? Little did I know that this would just be the beginning of a bad betting weekend.

Saturday afternoon: my wife's team gets beat by 33 in which the opposing team came down the floor with 3 seconds left and hit a 12 foot jump shot to take their lead from 31 to 33 as the buzzer expired. Classy.

Saturday evening: the Lion's get crushed, ruining my Detroit pick, but the Saints cover the other 2 things I had in my 3 team teaser. Awesome.

Sunday morning: I go over to get the kids picks for week 17 and he proceeds to choose 11 winners out of 15 games. That's right, he went 11-4 in week 17. Excuse me for one second . . . . %$&sucker, mother&$%#@^!!!!

Ok, I'm back. Soon after that the Falcons not only crush my pick and justification for them winning, but they ruin my 3 team teaser for the rest of the day. An NFL team, made up of incredible strength and athleticism, scored 2 points. How do you look at yourself in the mirror if you are any part of Atlanta's offense? You didn't score at all. The defense scored more than you. Thanks for helping me cover the over.

Sunday afternoon: Tim Tebow throws for 316 yards on 31.6 yards per attempt and beats the Steelers, whom I had picked.

Sunday evening: my wife gets an infection, wears sweats and 2 blankets and still shivers for an hour straight.

Monday morning: I decide to go do some sprints for my workout and strain something that can only be referenced as upper groin. This brings me to wonder, on my mile jaunt back home, how seldom one actually needs to sprint in real life if not playing sports. Which brings me to wonder how the hell I use to do this every day.

Monday evening: I get LSU +8.5 in a teaser for the championship game. The game ends up 21-0 and nearly causes me to change the channel it was so boring. Look, I love defense, but this was supposed to be the 2 best teams in the nation. How can LSU gain under 100 yards of total offense? Brutal.


Ok, I know I picked 3 road teams in 4 games and I know I bet on 3 road teams in 4 games, but in the past 10 years the home team record in Wild Card games has been 21-19. This weekend it was 4-0. How did I know that the Falcons would put up an LSU like performance? Leave it to Eli to stick it to me again. Could all of this be because I jumped off the Tebow band wagon? Am I being punnished for lack of faith in the son of God? What does he expect me to do this week? Go against Belichick? Not gonna happen. Don't care what the line is. On my grave it's gonna say: "Faithful as a $#@%ing dog"

Let's go back a couple of weeks and recap where we are now.

After week 16
Me 49-51      49%
Kid 47-53     47%
Huhns 30-28  52%
Brent 35-37   48%


So I'm up 2 games on the kid and etching ever closer to Huhn's little giant genius. Then I go over to the kids house and he proceeds to pecker slap me with his 11-4 picks. Seriously try this. Try to go 11-4 sometime, tell me how hard it is. Unbelievable. That's ok, he has a little surprise coming up that is going to rock his attention needy filled world.


After week 17
Me 57-58       49.7%
Kid 58-57       50.3%
Brent 43-44     49.1%
Huhns 40-33    54.8%


So not only does my lead evaporate, but the kid jumps up a game going into the playoffs. Not to mention the Huhn's, somewhere quietly leaving us for the friendly confines of Moscow, ID, continue to be better than 50% at picking winners. Don't worry I had an even better week in the playoffs.


After Wildcard Playoffs
Me 58-61         47%
Kid 60-59        50.2%
Brent 47-44      56.4%
Huhns 43-34     58.1%




Welcome to the bottom of the barrel, population me, the Falcons, LSU, and Eli Manning's body language. Good thing I do all that research and looking at stats each week. Apparently I should just look at logos and see which one I like better. You've gotta be kidding me. 7 games left in the year. I need to make a strong push.

The Kids wild card picks

Cincinnati +4 at Houston Detroit +10 at New Orleans NY Giants -3 vs. Atlanta Denver +8 vs. Pittsburgh

Wild Card Picks

Houston -3 vs. Cincinnati
1st playoff game ever in Houston and the house will be rockin. Andre Johnson is back and Jake Delhomme, TJ Yates, or Dave Kreig could be throwing him the ball, it doesn't matter. I like the Bengals, but not on the road, and not with a rookie QB in his first playoff game. Houston can run the ball (153 ypg) and play defense (285 total yards allowed per game), two things that will help them keep Cinncy's offense off the field.

Detroit +10 at New Orleans
10 points? Seriously? When did the Lions become the 2010-11 Seattle Seahawks. Last time I checked the Lions could put points on the board. And last time I checked New Orleans wasn't exactly a defensive lock down team. Do they have anyone who can cover Calvin Johnson?  . . . NO, cause apparently nobody can. I'm sure the Saints will win this game, but you want me to believe that they will win by more than 10? The Packers put up 45 on Detroit last week and they only won by 4. This is just too many points for an NFL playoff game.


Atlanta +3 at New York Giants
Atlanta runs the ball better than the Giants do (Atlanta 114 yards per game, NYG 89 yards per game). Atlanta plays better run defense than the Giants do (Atlanta 97 ypg allowed, NYG 121 ypg allowed). Atlanta should control the ground game here, which is important for 3 reasons. First, it will be cold and windy outside at the New Meadowlands and it's easier to run the ball in the cold and wind then it is to pass the ball. Second, running the ball negates New York's defense strength, their D-Line pass rush. Third, New York throws for nearly 300 yards per game, which accounts for almost 75% of their total offense. The best way to defeat a team who throws the ball a lot and can score quickly doing it, is to control the clock and keep that offense off the field.

Don't get me wrong here, I don't like the fact that I'm picking the Falcons to help me out, but was I really supposed to count on Eli? Down Syndrome boy will probably stick it to me, but I'm not going to bet on him (literally). Can you really put your faith in a team that went on a 4 losing streak in the second half of the season? A team that lost 5 of it's last 8 games? A team that only beat a bad Jets team and Dallas, twice, in the second half?


Pittsburgh -8 at Denver
Look, I drank the kool-aid, but those things always come to a crashing halt. Usually with a bunch of dead people around, but a halt non the less. Has anyone seen him play these last couple of games? Um . . Excuse me Miss?  . . I'm done with this kool-aid. Can I have a beer please? My boy Big Ben drinks beers in bars. Just don't go to the bathroom with him.  . . . . . . . Too soon? Inappropriate? Get over it. What the hell did that chick think she was getting into? Oh the starting quarter back for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who has 2 super bowl rings, wants to hang out and have some drinks with me. I'm sure he just wants to talk and get to know me as a person. If you don't want to get bit by a shark, stay out of the water lady. Idiot.

Big Ben is hurt, I don't care. Their starting running back is out, doesn't matter. Lost their best corner, who was he gonna cover anyway? The Broncos are going to score 6 points, which means the Steelers need 2 TDs and a field goal to cover. Charlie Batch could start at QB and Jerome Bettis could play running back and they would still score this many points.

Brent & Huhn's Wild Card picks

Huhns

Cincinnati +3 at Houston

For the first time all year, Hambone likes someone other than the T’s. I think he finally realized that the Bengal logo was a “B” with Tiger stripes. I like Houston but in the 10 minutes of cable TV I watched in the hotel this weekend I saw that Yates is hurt now too… not good, even for a Kubiak.

New Orleans -10 vs. Detroit

The Swords are a favorite and even though 10 is a lot of points and last year the Saints struggled in Week One of the playoffs, they are at home and right now I think Brees  could actually do one of those old Reebok commercials.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yim3rQfRdLs

New York -3 vs. Atlanta

“Hey, I have a suit like that!” Referring to his toy helmet, shoulder pads, pants and jersey that Mom customized with “Icebox”. I know nothing about Atlanta except they have a decent young QB. I’ll take Hambone’s pick because there’s something about Eli, like a hot girl that always does you wrong but you keep coming back…

Denver +8 vs. Pittsburg

Tebow has been regressing, no doubt about it – but he’s a gamer, big time gamer. 8 is a lot and Pitt’s all kinds of banged up. Ryan Clark lost two organs last time he played in Mile High – he still wants to go, just to show the stadium he’s better than that – Tomlin’s keeping him out and they’re missing a lot of their fight. Denver may not win but this score will look more like a baseball game and 8 is pretty safe. 

Brent

Texans (-3) – Cincy knew they had to stop Baltimore’s run game last week, and what did Ray Rice do? He ran for 170+ yards… expect their run defense to struggle against Foster and Tate

Saints (-10) – Ndamakong Suh’s presence in this game will only provide more penalties for Detroit. If Detroit is down by 2 scores in the 2^nd half, look for Suh to get ejected by literally trying to rip the head off of Drew Brees. Saints win big, Jim Schwartz cries and throws a tantrum

Giants (-3) – Atlanta is not very good on the road, Giants have played well in their last two games, both in the same stadium, although one was a “road” game

Broncos (+8) – The Steelers have a lot of injuries right now, maybe because they are elderly, but look for that to affect the outcome a little bit. I still think the Steelers have the upper hand in this one, but the injuries keep it at 1 score

Huhn's Week 17 Picks

Jets +3 at Dolphins

A virtual toss-up as far as we are concerned and Hambone likes the Jets for some reason; they must have been on TV when we used to have that magic cord that brought the world into our TV.

Patriots -10 vs. Bills

If I recall the Pats have their playoff position wrapped up but even when they don’t care and their backups are playing they should still be 10 points better than the Bills

Texans +2.5 vs. Titans

Probably the best logo in the NFL gets Hambone’s attention lately.

Colts +3.5 at Jaguars

The Horseshoes are a favorite because when we learned about shoes, we needed to know what kind of shoe a horse wears. Hard to argue with that.

Redskins +8 at Eagles

“Hey Dad, do we get to pick the Skins today?” “Sure thing Hambone.” It only seems racially insensitive when you type it after it comes out of a three year olds mouth.

Bears +1.5 at Vikings

Going against Hambone on this one. Just on a gut feeling, even if it is picking the least crappy of the crappy options.

Saints -8.5 vs. Panthers

The Swords should have this one in the bag, unless we get backdoored by Cam.

49’ers -10.5 at Rams

Maybe Hambone is coming around to the power of the Harbaugh, maybe he somehow knows that the Rams are awful, probably it’s mostly just that the Rams logo is bad.

Lions +3 at Packers

After two weeks of liking the G’s, Hambone suddenly prefers the Lions. I’ll trust his gut.

Ravens +1.5 at Bengals

I like the Bengals this year, mostly because I like young guys doing well over experienced guys. I always hated the “you don’t have any experience” line, especially from incompetent people.

Browns +6.5 vs Steelers

Hambone just doesn’t like the Steeler logo. Pittsburg has been up and down this year so I’ll hope for a poorish showing and somehow the Orange Helmets will keep it with in 7.

Broncos -3 vs Chiefs

Tebow. 100 picks couldn’t sway the kid that actually does “The Tebow”.

Seahawks +3 at Cardinals

Seems like something should be riding on this but Seattle is out of it. Carroll is good in games that don’t matter – which is true of most of his USC games.

Chargers +3 at Raiders

Hambone has ridden one horse in his life. Its name was Bolt. That’s enough to choose it over a pirate looking logo that resembles Darth Vader. Raiders are bad finishers, I’ll agree with the boy and go with Rivers.

Falcons +11 vs. Buccaneers

Too good not to cover against a horrible team. Hambone likes the Bucs, but I disagree and until he can type. I get the final call.

Giants -3 vs. Cowboys

The Giants are better than the Cowboys late in the season. Hambone doesn’t know who Tony Romo is but knows that Icebox O’Shea is always good in the clutch. 

Brent's Week 17 Picks

Redskins +8

Indy +3.5

San Francisco -10.5

Chicago +1.5

Detroit -3

NY Jets +3

New Orleans -8.5

Tennessee -2.5

New England -10

Baltimore -1.5

Pittsburgh -6.5

Atlanta -11

Oakland -3

Kansas City +3

Seattle +3

NY Giants -3

no explanations, week 17 is a crap shoot, and I'm hoping for the pass line...