F the Stats

For those of you that don't know I am a high school math teacher. This week we have been reviewing for finals. I start off class by giving them some important formulas and talking through some concepts, then I give them a practice test for whatever chapter we are reviewing that day. Now here's the kicker, I don't grade these practice tests. I don't even have them turn them in. We go over the correct answers at the end of the period, but if they actually they do it or not is their choice. Most of the students will actually do it, but some of them won't do a thing. 

Yesterday I am walking through the class and ask one of the students how come they aren't working on the review. Their response was, "I always fail the quizzes anyway, what's the point of doing the review?" 

So I said, "Let me get this straight. You never do anything in here. You don't take notes, you don't do the practice problems, you don't study, but you are confused about why you continue to fail quizzes? So if you were to punch yourself in the face, would you wonder why it hurts? Or would you just keep punching yourself in the face cause you're a moron?"

I've been told that tact isn't my strong suit.

This little incident got me to thinking. I do over an hour of research every week for my picks and where has it got me? I'm losing to a 2 year old, I'm picking 10% worse than a 3 year old, and have a lower percentage than Brent, who sends his picks back within minutes of me sending him the lines. All my research has put me in last place. Maybe I should start punching myself in the face repeatedly. 

This week I'm going a different direction. I am going to take my own advice and make an adjustment. This week I am going to go against popular opinion, buck the trends, think outside of the box, go with my gut. And if it all goes bad, we don't have school on Monday so I can get wheel barrow drunk and forget about it all. 

San Francisco +3 vs. New Orleans

This is not the look for a guy who tries to be Billy Bad Ass

Everyone thinks New Orleans is the hot team and that they are going to score 40+ points in every game. Every person outside of the Bay area thinks the Saints are going to win this game. Why wouldn't they? Alex Smith, rookie head coach and the first time in the playoffs for a lot of the 49er players sounds like a recipe for a loss. And the line only being 3 points make this very easy for the Saints to cover with how fast they can score touchdowns. All that being said, I'm going the other way. Now counting on Jim Harbaugh is kind of like using one of my testicles as collateral for a bet, but I'm doing it anyway. He's had two weeks to put on his white polo shirt, black standard sweatshirt, and the jock you know he coaches in. He should be ready to go. 

New England -13.5 vs. Denver

Teeeeeeeeeeeeboooooooooooooow! Cost me $40 and caused my wife to become ill to the point where she shivered violently on the couch for an hour. As far as I'm concerned he can kiss my ass next time he is Tebowing. Taking my money is one thing, but messing with my family, that's completely different. Not only am I off the bandwagon, but I'm hiding behind a tree waiting to ambush the damn thing when it comes around the corner. 

America has Tebow mania, as they probably should. But guess what America? My boy Belichick has a P.h.d. in the black arts. He is gonna sit 2 safeties over the top and make Tebow complete short passes all day to beat him. This line could be 20 and I would still take the Patriots. You're telling me that Belichick can't out coach John Fox? No chance. He eats other teams stars for breakfast. He has taken down Peyton Manning and LaDanian Tomlinson when they were MVPs, he can take down Tebow. 

Houston +7 at Baltimore

The popular opinion here is that Baltimore rolls. TJ Yates won't be able to pass on the Baltimore defense, the Ravens will be pumped up at home, and Ray Rice will run all over the Texans D. Seems to me like these two teams are pretty similar. Both play good defense, both run the ball well, and both have average QB's. TJ Yates looked pretty good last week against a good Bengal defense, so I think he will be adequate against an aging Ravens D. Let's get serious here: Ray Lewis was scary 10 years ago when he stabbed a guy on Saturday night and won the super bowl MVP on sunday, but now he is just older, slower, and louder. Sure the Ravens will be pumped up, but adrenaline only lasts for so long and old legs don't have much juice in them anymore. 

Look, I love defense more than the next guy. I know the Ravens had the #3 defense in the NFL, but do you know who had the #2 defense in the NFL? That's right, the Texans. Who has younger players on their defense? The Texans. Who hates old people? This guy.

Green Bay -9 vs. NY Giants

For weeks all the experts at the Mothership (little Dan Patrick reference for you, if you don't get it, google it) have been saying that the Giants are the team to beat the Packers. They rush the passer well, they run the ball well, and they have a good passing game. Combine that with a big spread (-9) and most of the betting has gone the Giants way.

Here's a nice little stat that was tweeted to me this week by Spreadapedia:

I Love this guy.        Rodgers!!!!

Since 1978 home playoff teams with a turnover differential of +2 are 35-6 against the spread and 38-3 straight up. 

There are two home playoff teams with that high of turnover differential this week, the 49ers and the Packers. Hard to believe that the Packers had a +24 turnover diff this year with how bad their defense was, but they are very opportunistic and discount double check doesn't throw many picks.

 I thought that the Packers offense would struggle with Rodgers not playing against the Lions, but then Matt Flynn sets Green Bay records for yards thrown and TDs thrown. Turns out that offense is just a passing machine. The Lions defense is horrible, I get it, but the Giant DBs aren't anything special either. If Rodgers gets some time they should score 40 easy. Throw that in with a couple of picks on the hopes and prayers that Eli tosses up sometimes, and the Packers roll. 

Eli can't continue to screw me, right?

Good luck to all of you with your picks this week.